US CPI Holds at 2.7% While Core Inflation Accelerates, Fueling Rate Cut Speculation
July's inflation data presents a bifurcated picture: while headline CPI remained stable at 2.7% year-over-year, Core inflation surged to 3.1% - its fastest pace in five months. This divergence puts the Federal Reserve in a delicate position as markets price in an 82% probability of a September rate cut.
Tariff impacts are now materializing in consumer prices, with Goldman Sachs projecting pass-through costs could triple by October as inventory buffers deplete. The Fed's preferred CORE metric's persistent elevation suggests underlying price pressures may prove stickier than anticipated, even as trade policy uncertainties resolve.